FOR THE MONTH OF July 2010
Date of release: August 26, 2010

SFR and Multi-Family Residential Construction

Data courtesy of Construction Industry Research Board
*Forecasts are made by first tuesday based on current market and demographic trends

TRENDS:

• The pace of single family residence (SFR) construction during July 2010 was at an annual rate of 22,100 starts; 5% below one year ago.
• The present trend in the number of SFR starts is flat, following a downward trend that lasted from 2004 through February 2009.
• The most recent peak year in SFR starts was 2005, with 155,322 starts, and the most recent trough year is 2009 with a  total of 25,454 SFR starts.
• Average dollar value of an SFR start in July 2010 was $272,120. This is 2% more than one year ago, and 25% more than the peak year of 2005.

FORECAST:

• The forecast for total SFR starts in 2010 by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) is for 29,500. This is up 16% from 2009.
• first tuesday’s own forecast for total SFR starts in 2010 is 28,000, up 12% from 2009.
• The trough year for SFR starts this recession likely occurred during 2009, and the next peak year for SFR starts is likely to occur during the three year period of 2016-2018, as forecast by first tuesday.

APARTMENT/CONDO CONSTRUCTION

TRENDS:

• The pace of apartment/condo construction during July 2010 was at an annual rate of 26,100 starts; 144% above one year ago.
• The present trend in the number of apartment/condo starts is flat, following a downward trend that lasted from 2004 through May 2009.
• The most recent peak year in apartment/condo starts was 2004 with 61,543 starts, and the most recent trough year is now 2009 with a total of 10,967 apt/condo starts.
• Average dollar value of an apartment/condo start in July 2010 was $147,168. This is 14% more than one year ago, and 35% more than the peak year of 2004.

FORECAST:

• The forecast for total apartment/condo starts in 2010 by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) is for 18,000. This is up 64% from 2009.
• first tuesday’s own forecast for total apartment/condo starts in 2010 is 10,300, down 8% from 2009.
• The trough year for apartment/condo starts this recession will likely occur during 2010 (if it has not already occurred in 2009), with the next peak year for apartment/condo starts likely to occur during the two year period of 2016-2017, as forecast by first tuesday.

STATISTICS RELATED TO CALIFORNIA HOUSING:

• 8.7 million SFRs existed in California in January, 2010 (from the CA Dept. of Finance).
• Population growth in California is currently at an annual pace of 427,000.
• The number of people employed in California in July 2010 was 13,795,300 (from the CA Employment Development Dept.), down from the December 2007 peak of 15,348,200.
• The downward trend in the number of California jobs is decelerating, and forecast to bottom out by 2011.
• The number of vacant homes and apartment/condos was 500,000 in early 2009, as reported by the USPS.

Copyright © 2010 by first tuesday Realty Publications, Inc. Readers are encouraged to reprint or distribute this information with credit given to the first tuesday Journal Online — P.O. Box 20069, Riverside, CA 92516.