Current market rates
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The average 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rates increased to their highest levels in over a year during the week ending June 14, 2013. Driving these rate increases, the 10-year Treasury Note climbed slightly. The difference between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury Note rate increased to 1.78%. This is 0.38 percentage points above the historical spread, indicating homebuyers are still overpaying for mortgages.
Nearly all rates used to set adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) decreased in May 2013. These include the 6-month and 3-month Treasury Bill rates, the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and the 12-Month Treasury Average.
As of May 2013, the average ARM rate has likely bottomed. This rate will increase once the Federal Reserve inevitably raises its rates. ARM use will pick up when home prices rise consistently faster than the rate of inflation and buyers seek to extend their purchasing power.
| Chart update 06/13/13 | ||
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Current
06/13/13
3.98%
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Month ago
05/16/13
3.48%
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Year ago
06/14/12
3.65%
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The average 30-year commitment rate is the rate at which a lender commits to lend mortgage money in the United States-West as reported by Freddie Mac. The western region includes CA, AZ, NV, OR, WA, UT, ID, MT, HI, AK, and GU. More information is available on Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey report.
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| Chart update 06/13/13 | ||
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Current
06/13/13
3.09%
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Month ago
05/16/13
2.63%
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Year ago
06/14/12
2.95%
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The average 15-year commitment rate is the rate at which a lender commits to lend mortgage money in the United States-West as reported by Freddie Mac. More information is available on Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey report.
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5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) Average Rate |
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| Chart updated 05/30/13 | ||
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May 2013
2.49%
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Apr 2013
2.52%
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May 2012
2.83%
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The 5/1 average adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate shows the average rate for the first five years after origination, as reported by Freddie Mac. After the initial five-year period, the ARM rate is adjusted annually based on an index figure, such as a certain Treasury Bill rate (which reflects Federal Reserve rate movements) or the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR).
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| Chart update 06/13/13 | ||
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Current
06/11/13
2.20%
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Month ago
05/13/13
1.92%
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Year ago
06/12/12
1.67%
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This rate is a leading indicator of the direction of future Freddie Mac rates. The 10-year rate historically runs closer to 4% during a stable money market. The rate is influence by worldwide demand for the dollar and anticipated future domestic inflation.
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| Chart update 06/10/13 | ||
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Average 15-Year
May 2013
2.68%
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Average 30-Year
May 2013
3.51%
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10-Year Treasury Note Average
May 2013
1.93%
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The average 15- and 30-year conventional commitment rates are the rates at which a lender commits to lend mortgage money in the United States-West for the duration of the life of each respective loan as reported by Freddie Mac. More information is available on Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey report. The green line reflects the 10-Year Treasury Note Average, a leading indicator of the direction of future Freddie Mac rates. It is comprised of the level of world-wide demand for the dollar and anticipated future domestic inflation.
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| Chart update 06/13/2013 |
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Current
06/13/13
0.045%
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Month Ago
05/16/13
0.045%
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Year Ago
06/14/12
0.085%
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This rate determines the minimum interest rate the seller must use in a delayed §1031 transaction and report when not receiving interest on §1031 monies held by a facilitator/accommodator. This rate also sets the amount of the ordinary income the facilitator/accommodator must report. [For more on the use of §1031 monies, see the August 2008 article, Interest imputed on §1031 monies delivered to facilitators.]
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| Chart update 06/13/13 | ||
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May 2013
0.04%
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Apr 2013
0.06%
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May 2012
0.09%
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The 3-Month Treasury Bill is the rate managed by the Federal Reserve through the Fed Funds Rate as the base price of borrowing money in the short-term. It is used in determining the yield spread, which predicts the likelihood of a recession one year forward. The posted rate is the monthly average for the listed month. Rates are released with a 1-2 month reporting delay. [See the first tuesday article, Using the yield spread to forecast recessions.]
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| Chart update 06/13/13 | ||
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May 2013
0.08%
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Apr 2013
0.09%
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May 2012
0.15%
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The six-month T-Bill rate is one of several indices used by lenders to periodically adjust the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate. The adjusted rate equals the indexed rate (at the time of adjustment or an average of several prior rates) plus the lender’s profit margin. The posted rate is the monthly average for the listed month. Rates are released with a 1-2 month reporting delay. |
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| Chart update 06/06/13 | ||
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May 2013
0.12%
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Apr 2013
0.12%
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May 2012
0.19%
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This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate.The ARM interest rate equals T-Bill yield, plus the lender’s profit margin. The index is an average of T-Bill yields with maturities adjusted to one year.
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| Chart update 06/06/13 | ||
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May 2013
0.163%
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Apr 2013
0.169%
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May 2012
0.147%
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This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. This figure is an average of the one-year T-Bill rates for the past 12 months.The ARM interest rate equals the 12-Month Treasury Average yield plus the lender’s profit margin. There is a one-two month lag in data reporting for the 12-Month Treasury Average.
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| Chart update 05/30/13 | ||
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May 2013
0.97%
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Apr 2013
0.99%
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May 2012
1.16%
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This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. The ARM interest rate equals Cost-of-Funds, plus the lender’s profit margin. Current index reflects the cost of funds two months’ prior in the United States-West. More information is available on the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco Cost of Fund’s Index page.
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| Chart update 05/30/13 | ||
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1 Month
0.19%
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6 Month
0.42%
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1 Year
0.69%
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This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate.The ARM interest rate equals the LIBOR rate plus the lender’s profit margin. The rate is set by the banks in London, England.
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| Chart update 05/30/13 | ||
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May 2013
3.25%
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Apr 2013
3.25%
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May 2012
3.25%
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This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate.The Prime Rate is used by banks to price short-term business loans and set ARMs tied to the Prime Rate. Historically the rate is 3% over the Federal Funds Target Rate.
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| Chart update 05/30/13 | ||
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May 2013
0.75%
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Apr 2013
0.75%
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May 2012
0.75%
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Usury law limits the annual interest yield on nonexempt loans to 10%, or the discount rate plus 5%, whichever is greater. The discount rate is charged on loans made by the the Federal Reserve Bank to its members. More information is available on the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Discount Rate page.
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| Chart update 05/30/2013 |
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Short (to 3 years)
June 2013
0.18%
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Medium (3 to 9 years)
June 2013
0.95%
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Long (9+ years)
June 2013
2.44%
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These rates determine minimum interest yield reportable on carryback financing. The AFR category is determined by the carryback due date. *Rates are for monthly payments. More information on AFRs on other payment periods can be found on the Internal Revenue Service Applicable Federal Rates page.
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Consumer Price Index — Urban Consumer (CPI-U)Last updated 05/30/13(1967=100) |
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| San Francisco | Los Angeles | ||
| Apr 2012 | 734.706 | Apr 2012 | 699.806 |
| Apr 2013 | 752.199 | Apr 2013 | 706.239 |
| Annual Change | 2.4% | Annual Change | 0.9% |
| San Diego | |||
| Second Half 2011 | 856.715 | ||
| Second Half 2012 | 869.959 | ||
| Annual Change | 1.5% | ||
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The periodic percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of domestic inflation, and is used to measure price movements among goods and services associated with the consumer’s cost of living. The CPI is one of the factors used to adjust monthly rents in non-residential leases. More information about the CPI is available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics New Releases page. [For more information on the CPI, see the November 2009 first tuesday article, Calculating Owner-Occupied Housing in CPI. first tuesday students can also see Chapter 44 of the textbook Property Management, "Rent Increases and the CPI," available on the Forms-on-CD 4.2 and Online Library. (Not a first tuesday student? Click here and enroll in any course for one-year's access to all books and materials published by first tuesday.)]
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Rate Analysis for Private Lender Section 32 Reg-Z LoansLast updated 05/09/13 |
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| Month* | 6-Month | 1-Year | 2-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 7-Year |
| April 2013 | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.34% | 0.71% | 1.15% |
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On junior trust deed loans, a margin of 5 – 8% points is added to the Index Figure (Cost-of-Funds Rate) for the maturity date of a Treasury bill equal in length to the payoff date of the loan to set the Section 32 threshold for term limitations. With this in mind, if the percentage of the total loan amount represented by points and fees is greater than the applicable Federal Securities Rate plus ten percentage points, additional disclosures, limitations and prohibitions are triggered by Regulation Z (Reg-Z) Section 32. [For more information, please reference the June 2008 first tuesday articles, Regulation Z Controlled Lending and Brokering Cal-32 High-Cost Loans. first tuesday students can also access first tuesday Form 223-1, Points and Fees Test, and first tuesday Form 223-1, Supplemental Truth-in-Lending Section 32 Disclosure, available on the Forms-on-CD 4.3 and Online Library. (Not a first tuesday student? Click here and enroll in any course for one-year's access to all books and materials published by first tuesday.)]
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*Rate information gathered from:
The Federal Reserve Board
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics
Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac)
Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)
U.S. Department of Labor
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service

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Hi ,
This is a very helpful analysis. Keep it up monthly for those that are serious about following ARMs.
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Thank you for all of the great info and data each month!
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Really appreciate your continued current info on all types of market rates, sales, home prices, etc. Very useful for those of us working this business every single day.
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You guys are great and I look to you for unadulterated truth.
No fear of me straying with great articles like this.
Next time I renew u can bet its with your program.
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helpful Synopsis
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Still more good news”
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Concise information, clearly explained. Good stuff!
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ditto
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With rates so low, and other investment vehicles so turbulent, it would make perfect sense to invest in housing for rental income at this time.
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we are still going down this depression is not bottomed out by any means
the cost of living has taken a beating and fuel and food is not included sence clinton took it out of the formula……..look at the prices of grocies and fuel and it will tell you the truth get your head out of the { clouds} and grow some balls its not going to get better anytime soon….
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How low can it go? The U.S. government–up to its ears in debt–is still able to borrow at unbelievably low rates (well under 2%) from foreign investors. That ability is currently based solely on the belief that American will always pay its debts and is a good investment risk.
How about a little glimpse of macro-economics?
Now could that perception ever change? If ever the foreign investors come to decide that America might not pay its debts, then we would see a sudden rise in interest rates that would boggle the mind, kicking off a massive inflation in consumer goods or plunging us into a deeper depression with deflation—take your pick.
The U.S. government runs on borrowed money—borrowed from foreign investors.
FACT: The massive U.S. debt as it currently stands, could NEVER be paid off. But if the dollar were devalued (as Roosevelt did in 1934) the debt might be paid off in cheaper dollars. This would be concomitant with a rise in the Chinese yuan.
Here’s the catch: This would be done on the backs of the American people, as it would likely spur massive inflation and cause a spike in interest rates.
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Invest in property …while the rates are extremly low and our market prices in Ca.are half of the price as a home or piece of land 8-9 years ago. It may be years before we have a total recovery and the home price may not go up to where it was, butit is the best way to invest and cheaper to buy then to rent.
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Excellent Set of GRAPHS 4 THE PUBLIC! 2 BAD THEY CAN’T UNDERSTAND IT UNLESS THEY HAVE A BUSINESS DEGREE LIKE ME!
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I’ll have to admit the information overload is a factor in understanding, however it is good to know that First Tuesday continues to track these indices. Each chart references a brief explanation of its meaning. With continued support like this, outside of the Lending Industry interpretations, I’m starting to catch-on. First Tuesday,
you rock!
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