May 2012 home sales volume jumps
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Home sales volume in May 2012 was at the highest level since state and federal stimulus actions were taken in June of 2010, and up 18% from one year earlier. 41,790 new and resale home transactions closed escrow in California in May 2012, up 9% from April 2012, when 38,241 homes were sold. This marks four continuous months of increases in home sales volume.
Here are some other key factors controlling California’s housing market:
Absentee homebuyers
Absentee homebuyers (a group generally composed of speculators, buy-to-let investors and renovation contractors) accounted for 27% of Southern California (SoCal) May sales, down from 28% in April 2012, but still near the record high of 30% set in February 2012. Absentee buyers made up 25% of Bay Area homebuyers in May, up from 24% last month and 21% one year earlier. Sales of single family residences (SFRs) to owner-occupant homebuyers, the core demographic for a sustainable recovery, remain low.
first tuesday forecasts that sales volume and prices will not rise significantly for four to five years. As buyers realize this, absentee homebuyers will leave the market, leaving inventories behind to be consumed by occupying homebuyers.
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“Speculator activity is irrational…”?
FT has had a thing against speculators, but really now, isn’t everybody who buys anything real estate “speculating” – “to assume a business risk in hope of gain; especially : to buy or sell in expectation of profiting from market fluctuations” You single out and heap scorn upon the quickie artists among investors but whatever your reasons, you are wrong because there is nothing more rational than buying low and selling high.
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It seems there is a budding fervor building in our local markets here in the Southbay and Long Beach areas. Properties are scooped up fairly quickly. First Tuesday keeps stating that investors expect to turn a profit in 2-3 years, but perhaps the prime reason for buying is for rental income, not flipping?
After all, with a stock market that is robbing the public blind, banks that pay .01 % (one one-hundredth of one percent) on money market accounts and CDs, and slipping emerging market returns, the best possible investment is housing!
For anyone with the means or ability to procure a loan, it would be absurd NOT to buy property at this time. Even if values drop, rents would probably rise or at least stay the same with so many losing homes in foreclosures.
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