Positive indicators in April 2012 home sales volume
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Home sales volume in April 2012 was at the highest level since June of 2011, and up 9% from one year earlier. 38,241 new and resale home transactions closed escrow in California in April 2012, up 2% from March 2012, when 37,481 homes were sold.
Here are some other key factors controlling California’s housing market:
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You said above : “first tuesday forecasts that prices will not rise significantly for years. As buyers realize this fact, absentee homebuyers will leave the market. . .”
You also included investors who buy to rent among the absentee homebuyers.
With banks paying from .01% to .75% interest on most CDs and money market accounts, 10 year Treasuries now offering 1.6%, and the stock market losing more by the day, I doubt absentee homebuyers will leave the market just because home prices are not rising as you suggest.
Why? Because they can make SIGNIFICANTLY more profit renting properties out than in any other type of investment, and agents need to spread the word about that.
They can rent them out, make good money for 4 years, then sell if they wish when prices rise in 2016 as you predict they might.
And, even if prices don’t rise enough to sell for a profit, they can keep renting, as the renters will become more and more plentiful with foreclosures aplenty and the economy dipping further.
What better investment could there be than property? Most all wealthy persons I have ever known or read of– now or in the past– made much of their fortunes in property.
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