The 20% solution: personal savings rates and homeownership

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Personal savings fell in the first quarter (Q1) of 2013, and savings overall remain low. This continues a downward trend in the rate of savings over the past two years.

The sharp drop in savings since the Great Recession indicates the effects of prolonged joblessness still linger. Prospective homebuyers are saving less and less, casting doubt on their ability to muster a 20% down payment.

personal savings rate since 1952

Chart updated 5/14/2013

2012 2011 2010
Avg. Personal Savings Rate
3.9 4.3
5.1

Personal savings rate

Chart updated 5/14/2013

1st Quarter 2013 4th Quarter 2012 1st Quarter 2012
Personal Savings Rate
2.6
4.7 3.6

Data courtesy of United States Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Gray bars indicate periods of recession.

More and more, real estate demand is driven by how much money potential buyers save. Personal savings is down. What does this mean for future demand?

Trends in saving

The 20% down payment was once the gold standard of residential mortgages. During the fevered years of the Millennium Boom, this became a quaint novelty. Buyers (and lenders) got used to the easy days of purchasing a home with 0% down, and seller-paid or financed closing costs. This low barrier to entry was seductively convenient for Millennium Boom buyers.

Unsurprisingly, this was reflected in the personal savings rates of the period. From 1952 – 1990 personal savings as a percentage of disposable income was around 8-10%, according to the Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). During the Millennium Boom, it dropped to nearly 0%, a 50-year low. Then, the onset of the Great Recession in 2008 ushered reality back through the front door. Homeowners who felt the trauma of the housing crash began wisely stockpiling cash. The personal savings rate leaped up to 6% within a year.

As of October 2012, personal savings hovers around the 4% mark. The long, slow recovery continues to chip away at the modest savings accumulated during the last few years. Expect the up and down motion to continue as we navigate this listless jobs recovery.

Related article:

Jobs Move Real Estate

Read more first tuesday analysis
last updated December 2012

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