The fate of suburbia

Part II of this article series comments on the deterioration of suburbia in its current form and discusses the factors shaping suburbia’s future.

For a discussion of the coming depopulation of suburbia as the highly educated Generation YThe forthcoming generation of first-time homebuyers, consisting of individuals born in the 1980s and 1990s. and retiring Baby BoomersThe post-WWII generation responsible for a sharp increase in the U.S. population. Their collective activities have a sizeable effect on the market. return to California’s urban cores, see Part I of this article series.

Poverty and crime

The Millennium BoomThe years 2000-2007 leading up to the current economic recession, characterized by loose lending practices and unsustainably high property prices and sales volume.The years 2000-2007 leading up to the current economic recession, characterized by loose lending practices and unsustainably high property prices and sales volume. hit suburbia especially hard, as residents in suburban areas are disproportionally vulnerable to shifts in the broader economy as they lack adequate employment centers. Consider California’s largest centralized influx of population during the past decade, Southern California’s Inland Empire where a majority of jobs were related to the construction industry. As a result of the Great Recession, the Inland Empire currently has an unemployment rate of 14.8% and is currently still experiencing a net loss of jobs.

Without employment after the Boom, defaults soared and ghost towns were left. As of April 2011, the concentration of defaults were consistently higher in lower-cost suburban areas, with a ratio of 11 notices of default (NODs) filed for every 8 NODs for the rest of California. The increased vacancies in suburban neighborhoods has resulted in blight and increased crime. Much like the inner cities of the ‘60s and ’70s – known for high crime, gangs and poverty – suburbia will become the newest retreat (or jail) for California’s economically more desperate.