Where have all the houses gone?
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Part II of this article series answers several common agent questions about inventory, like: why can’t I find homes for my buyer-occupant clients? Will low housing inventory pull us out of the recovery?
first tuesday also writes a prescription for California’s housing recovery.
For a synopsis of what is needed to foster organic buyer-occupant demand, see Part I of this article series.
Where is the inventory going to come from?
In case you remain unconvinced lack of buyer-occupant demand is the primary obstacle blocking California’s real estate recovery, and instead are concerned by the low housing supply, not to worry. The housing inventory is not about to dry up anytime soon.
When inventory is actually lacking you will observe two reactions:
- home prices rising for a sustained period, (beyond six months); and
- positive and negative equity owners listing their home for sale, brought out by rising prices.
Neither is true today. In the current bumpy plateau recovery, home prices rise and fall from month to month, with no signs of a continuous upward recovery. Similarly, distressed sales still dominate the market, as equity levels have not risen sufficiently to buoy traditional sales.
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I send postcards out to 9000 vacant land owners. 4x/year. Offering to buy land. From 2009 to 2011 the market was filled with motivated sellers! 2012 I saw the “sellers” vanish. This indicates a decreasing need for cash & a market that has sold off. I bought over 5000 acres from 2009-2012. So 2012 was the bottom of the Vacant Land market for California & 2011 was the bottom for the SFR/Condo market for California. This same “drying up of buyers or sellers” occurred in 2007 for selling land and 2006 for selling homes… SFR’s & Condos take off faster, bounce faster, & fizzle out faster than vacant land… because of easy financing. Vacant land is usually seller carry or cash or 1031 or Govt. or Corporate purchases. This so called increase in buyers for Vacant land occurred right after 2001, the year SFR’s & Condos started to get hot. Similar to the “cold spell that started in 1992! It goes on and on and on ……. you know what I mean…
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